Prediction of Cumulative Death Cases in Nigeria Due to COVID-19 Using Mathematical Models

Authors

  • Salihu Yahuza Department of Microbiology and Biotechnology, Federal University Dutse, PMB 7156, Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria.
  • Ibrahim Alhaji Sabo Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, Federal University Wukari, P.M.B. 1020 Wukari, Taraba State Nigeria.
  • Bilal Ibrahim Dan-Iya Department of Pharmacy Technician, College of Health Sciences, Kano, and Technology, Kano, Nigeria.
  • Mohd Yunus Yunus Shukor Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, D.E, Malaysia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54987/bessm.v4i1.528

Keywords:

COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, MMF Model, Nigeria, Kinetics

Abstract

In this paper, we present various growth models such as Von Bertalanffy, Baranyi-Roberts, Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), modified Richards, modified Gompertz, modified Logistics and Huang in fitting and evaluating the COVID-19 epidemic pattern as of 15 July 2020 in the form of the total number of SARS-CoV-2 deaths in Nigeria. The MMF model was found to be the best model having the highest adjusted R2 value and lowest RMSE value. The values for the Accuracy and Bias Factors were near unity (1.0). The parameters derived from the MMF model include maximum growth rate (log) of 0.02 (95% CI from 0.02 to 0.03), curve constant (d) that affects the infection point of 1.61 (95% CI from 1.42 to 1.79) and maximal total number of death cases (Ymax) of 1,717 (95% CI from 1,428 to 2,123). The model estimated that the total number of death cases for Nigeria on the coming 15th of August and 15th of September 2020 were 940 (95% CI of 847 to 1,043) and 1,101 (95% CI of 968 to 1,252), respectively. The predictive ability of the model employed in this study is a powerful tool for epidemiologist to monitor and assess the severity of COVID-19 in Nigeria in months to come. However, like any other model, these values need to be taken with caution because of the COVID-19 uncertainty situation locally and globally.

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Published

2020-07-31

How to Cite

Yahuza, S., Sabo, I. A., Dan-Iya, B. I., & Shukor, M. Y. Y. (2020). Prediction of Cumulative Death Cases in Nigeria Due to COVID-19 Using Mathematical Models. Bulletin of Environmental Science and Sustainable Management (e-ISSN 2716-5353), 4(1), 20–24. https://doi.org/10.54987/bessm.v4i1.528

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2020)

Section

Articles

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